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The rapid pace of AI development has not only captured the public’s attention but has also astonished AI researchers themselves, as found in a recent comprehensive survey.

By examining the responses of 2,778 notable AI researchers and comparing them to a previous survey, the survey revealed a collective belief among AI experts that various measures of AI are accelerating significantly. On average, the anticipated feasibility of 32 different AI-related tasks shifted 1.0 years earlier, moving from 2022 to 2023.

Particularly notable were the substantial changes in the collective forecasts for High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) and Full Automation of Labor (FAOL) compared to forecasts from the previous year, signifying a remarkable shift in perception within just a single year.

The survey also shed light on the viewpoints of AI enthusiasts and “doomers,” emphasizing a noteworthy preference for faster development, reflecting the prevailing sentiment within the AI community. Despite this acceleration, the implications and concerns about the rapid pace of AI change seem to leave the community largely undecided.


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The study, a pre-publication release from AI Impacts, a San Francisco-based research firm funded by Open Philanthropy, provides a valuable insight into the subjective beliefs of those propelling AI technology forward.

Artificial Intelligence


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